Geothermal could meet up to 15% of global power demand growth through 2050 — but a lot has to break right, a new analysis finds.
Why it matters: Decarbonizing power and heat requires lots of tools, and the International Energy Agency’s new report offers a pathway for geothermal to shed its niche status.
- But right now it provides 1% of global electricity, and use is concentrated in a few countries.
State of play: “New drilling technologies exploring resources at depths beyond 3 km open potential for geothermal in nearly all countries in the world,” IEA finds.
Stunning stat: “Up to 80% of the investment required in a geothermal project involves capacity and skills that are common in the oil and gas industry,” report notes.
Reality check: Making geothermal competitive means greater government policy support, specialized labor, and major cost declines.
- One benchmark: with the “right support,” IEA finds next-generation geothermal could get 80% cheaper by 2035.
- That could bring costs to roughly $50 per megawatt hour, “on a par or below hydro, nuclear and bioenergy.”
- Among the many barriers: permitting and administrative red tape that can mean decade-long project timelines.
What we’re watching: The report dives deeply into policy ideas for countries, such as financial risk mitigation and “remuneration” schemes that are currently far more common for solar and wind.